Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Morning Market


The sideways market continues.  As a good example, the IWMs have been trading between 72.60 and 75.20, but have yet to break out in a meaningful way from their trading range.  As such, we're still range bound.


The treasury market is also moving sideways, consolidating recent gains caused by the flight to safety from the EU trade.  However, this market is also waiting for a definitive reason to make a move in one direction or the other. 

 Oil's rally is unbroken.  Prices are consolidating a bit right here below the 100 price mark, but given the strength of the underlying EMA trend (a rising 10, 20 and 50 day EMA) it's difficult to see this market doing anything except move higher at this point.  There are, however concerns on the fundamental side -- namely, that the EU's recession possibility is fairly high right now, which would lower demand.  But as a possible counter-weight to that is China's managed slowdown which is going quite well right now. 


Copper is stumbling.  After forming a double bottom in October, prices rallied through the shorter EMAs, but then moved lower in a downward sloping channel and are now tangled with the shorter EMAs -- which themselves are not giving us any firm direction.  The MACD is no help either, as it is moving sideways.