Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Wednesday Commodities Round-Up

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Industrial metals dropped hard at the end of last year (in conjunction with all commodities). However, prices consolidated at a bottom for about 5-6 months and have since risen through key resistance areas. The RSI and MACD have been rising along with the rally. The 10 and 20 week SMAs are now moving higher and are both below prices.



On the daily chart we could have an issue. Note that prices have formed a double top, with the first top occurring in mid-April and the second occurring in early May. But also note both the RSI and MACD printed a lower number than on the previous high. This could indicate the rally is stalling -- or at least moving sideways for now. To that end, I've included the stochastics which are a better indicator for a sideways moving market and they are giving a short-term sell signal right now.


Agricultural prices are in a good bull market position right now. After falling at the end of last year, prices consolidated. Now they have moved out of that position and are moving higher. Both the MACD and RSI are confirming the upward trend. However, the SMAs are still bunched together -- we need them to form a more bullish pattern for this rally to kick into high gear.

On the daily chart, notice we're at the end of a consolidation period. Prices rallied from the beginning of December to January, made a disciplined move lower until early March followed by a rally. Now prices have moved through upside resistance with a confirmation coming from the MACD and RSI. Notice that on the weekly chart, the RSI and MACD have a long way to go, indicating this rally might have legs.