Tuesday, May 26, 2009

A Tale of Two Economic Views, Pt. II

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From the Confidence Board:

The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. rose sharply in April, the first increase in seven months, and the strengths among its components exceeded the weaknesses for the first time in one and a half years. Stock prices, the interest rate spread, consumer expectations, initial unemployment claims, the average workweek, and supplier deliveries all contributed positively to the index this month, more than offsetting the negative contributions from real money supply and building permits. The six-month change in the index has risen to -0.6 percent (a -1.2 percent annual rate) in the period through April 2009, up from -2.4 percent (a -4.8 percent annual rate) from April to October 2008. However, the weaknesses among the components have remained widespread over the past six-month period.


Here is the chart from the release:



And here is a graph of the contributing factors:



There are several charts from Pollster.com which I have posted that show consumer sentiment is increasing as well. I think this is vitally important -- people who think things are getting better are more prone to contribute to the economy.