Thursday, December 28, 2006

Weekly Unemployment +1000

From CBS MarketWatch

The number of U.S. workers filing new applications for state unemployment benefits rose slightly in the latest week while continuing jobless claims climbed to their highest level in almost a year, the Labor Department said Thursday. Initial jobless claims rose by 1,000 in the week ended Dec. 23 to 317,000, the Labor Department said in a report. But in a sign of slackening in the U.S. labor market, continuing claims, or people continuing to collect state unemployment benefits, rose by 16,000, to 2.53 million, in the week ended Dec. 16. It's the highest level since Jan. 28. The four-week average of continuing claims rose to its highest level since Feb. 18, to 2.51 million. The four-week average of initial claims fell by 10,250 to 315,750. This marked the lowest level since the week ended Nov. 11


Let's break this down into bite-sized economic morsels.

Initial jobless claims rose by 1,000 in the week ended Dec. 23 to 317,000, the Labor Department said in a report.

Not a big move. I would consider this statistical noise.

continuing claims, or people continuing to collect state unemployment benefits, rose by 16,000, to 2.53 million, in the week ended Dec. 16. It's the highest level since Jan. 28.

This is not good and shows signs of weakness. We need a bit more information about these people -- what industries employed them, what is their age etc.. -- but this raw number indicates the employment picture is probably weakening.

The four-week average of continuing claims rose to its highest level since Feb. 18, to 2.51 million.

Because the initial numbers jump around a bit, economists use a 4-week average to smooth out the jumps. However, this increase in the 4-week moving average confirms that employment prospects may not be as great as the low unemployment number indicates.

The four-week average of initial claims fell by 10,250 to 315,750. This marked the lowest level since the week ended Nov. 11

This is better news on the short-term front.

Let's look at the news release because there is some important information. Unfortunately it does not paste well into Blogger. So -- go to the page and notice that the number of states with fewer construction lay-offs comes in at 7. Earlier in December there was a rash of states with construction lay-offs. That seems to be slowing down for now which is a good economic sign. However, with a slowing housing market still, we may not be at the end of construction lay-offs.