Saturday, July 22, 2017

Weekly Indicators for July 17 - 21 at XE.com


 - by New Deal democrat

My Weekly Indicators post is up at XE.com.  There was an improvement to positivity across all time frames this week.

Friday, July 21, 2017

Why are mortgage applications so much stronger than home building?


 - by New Deal democrat

It's been a quandary all year.  I take a look at the possible reason why over at XE.com.

Thursday, July 20, 2017

Trump's presidency is 1/8 done. The economy is still on Obama's autopilot. Where's the DOOOM?!?

 - by New Deal democrat

Today marks half a year since Donald Trump took the Oath of Office as President.  I just wanted to note that, so far, absolutely nothing of significance has been enacted to affect the economy.  It's still basically Barack Obama's expansion.

Of note, where have all the Doomers gone?  Zero Hedge has turned into a Trump + Putin fanboi club. The left-wing purists who were sure that everything stunk and the next crash is right around the corner have moved on to other things.  The writers who had been bleating about imminent recessions - almost every year since 2009 - are now just talking about very slow GDP growth.  I'm almost tempted to become a contrarian!

Basically, everything of note is positive, although much has been or is decelerating.  Over the next 6-12 months, if Washington leaves the economy alone, I expect job growth to continue, the unemployment rate to decline a little, prime age labor force participation to increase, and nominal wage growth to remain steady if participation increases a lot, and maybe increase more if participation only increases a little, although the positivity of most of these things will probably decelerate.

One eighth of the way through Trump's presidency, Obama's autopilot is still engaged.

Wednesday, July 19, 2017

June housing permits and starts: an improvement, BUT...


 - by New Deal democrat

Both housing permits and starts popped nicely in June compared with May. But in comparison to the last 12 months overall ..... I take a look over at XE.com.